Town Planning Review

Planning for housing construction and population distribution in the Netherlands: the use of forecasting models

Town Planning Review (1984), 55, (4), 405


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TPR, 55 (4) 1984 HENK SCHOLTEN Planning for housing construction and population distribution in the Netherlands The use offorecasting models Planning residential construction and dealing with spatial planning issues require insight into the future situation. It is of prime importance for the planner to be able to evaluate the effect of specific interventions on future developments, and predictive models may be employed to generate such insights. This article deals with two models which are currently in use in Dutch planning circles. The first model deals with the spatial interaction generated by new residential construction; the second model is an application of the wel1-known input-output model in the field of housing. The application of the models should help in evaluating which construction programme creates the optimal redistribution effects of existing dwelling units. Examination of various reports and memoranda concerning housing and spatial planning in the Netherlands elicits two explicit policy goals. One was advanced by the division of housing of the Ministry of Housing, Spatial Planning, and the Environment, and reads as follows: 'While striving for equal opportunity for all, as many homeseekers as possible should have their housing needs satisfied within a reasonable time span' (author's translation).' The second, more complex, goal proceeds from the policies being pursued by the division of spatial planning of the Ministry, the core of which is how to obtain the maximum benefit from existing facilities. To this end, the population distribution should parallel the present pattern of facilities. to the extent that this is feasible. This implies aiming for a migration balance for each province. Within each province the relative positions of the urban areas are to be protected; the migratory processes should balance at this le~el also? In practice, however. these two policy goals are obviously conflicting. ThIs discrepancy makes the formulation of a more general question pertinent: how ~re such planning questions operationalised by the Dutch government; what !nstruments are available for the implementation of the policies; and what exactly IS the role of research? 405 Copyright © 2010 ProOuest LLC. All rights reserved. Copyright © Liverpool University Press.

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Author details

Scholten, Henk