Quebec Studies

Assessing the Reliability of Predictions on the Future of Quebec

Quebec Studies (1997), 24, (1), 197–209.

Abstract

Au cours de ces dernières années, de nombreuses prévisions ayant rapport à l'impact de la sécession du Québec ont été faites par d'éminents économistes, des experts en sciences politiques, des chefs financiers et des politiciens. Deux intérêts clefs se trouvent au coeur de telles prévisions-le résultat des négociations au sujet des frontières québécoises, et les droits du Québec par rapport à la politique monétaire du Canada. Cette étude tâche d'estimer la fiabilité de ces prévisions en appliquant une nouvelle méthodologie à la littérature sur la politique constitutionnelle canadienne, celle de expected utility forecasting, une technique avec des antécédents confirmés dans un éventail d'applications dans le domaine des sciences sociales.

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James, Patrick